Home  About Journal  Editorial Board  Instruction  Subscription  Contact Us   Message Board  
JMT 2017, Vol. 25 Issue (4) :236-249    DOI: 10.1007/s40534-017-0140-z
Articles Current Issue | Next Issue | Archive | Adv Search << Previous Articles | Next Articles >>
Risk assessment:method and case study for traffic projects
Xin Yu1, Panos D. Prevedouros2*
1 KPMG LLP, 1601 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA 19128, USA;
2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2540 Dole Street, 383, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA

Related Articles
Download: PDF (1481KB)   HTML 1KB   Export: BibTeX or EndNote (RIS)      Supporting Info
Abstract A comprehensive project evaluation and decision-making method considering multiple objectives, stakeholders, and attributes of proposed traffic treatments is inherently complicated. Although individual techniques in evaluating operations, safety, economic, and stakeholder objectives are available, a practical method that integrates all these risk factors and their uncertainties into a multiattribute decision-making tool is absent. A three-level project decision-making process was developed to model and assess multiple-attribute risk in a proposed traffic treatment from the perspective of multiple stakeholders. The direct benefits from reducing delay and safety risk (basic objectives of traffic treatments) are computed in Level 1 with established methods. Feasibility and performance analysis in Level 2 examine site-specific constraints and conduct detailed performance analysis using advanced analysis tools. In Level 3, this paper introduces an innovative and integrated multiple attributes evaluation process under fuzziness and uncertainty (MAFU) process for evaluation and decision-making. The MAFU is a comprehensive and systematic assessment and decision-making procedure that can assess the magnitudes of project performance and to integrate conflicting interests and tradeoffs among stakeholders. A case study illustrates the application of MAFU for the selection of a traffic alternative involving several evaluation attributes and stakeholders. Results show that the MAFU produced the smallest variance for each alternative. With traditional cost-benefit evaluation methods, the uncertainty associated with performance of a traffic project in terms of operation, safety, environmental impacts, etc., is unrestricted and cumulative. Therefore, a reliable multi-attribute evaluation of complex traffic projects should not be made with conventional cost-benefit analysis alone but with a process like MAFU.
Email this article
Add to my bookshelf
Add to citation manager
Email Alert
Articles by authors
KeywordsRisk assessment   Uncertainty   Traffic project   Monte Carlo Simulation   Decision-making     
Received 2016-06-15;
Corresponding Authors: Xin Yu, Panos D. Prevedouros     Email: alyx.yu@gmail.com;pdp@hawaii.edu
Cite this article:   
Xin Yu, Panos D. Prevedouros.Risk assessment:method and case study for traffic projects[J]  JMT, 2017,V25(4): 236-249
http://jmt.swjtu.edu.cn/EN/10.1007/s40534-017-0140-z      or     http://jmt.swjtu.edu.cn/EN/Y2017/V25/I4/236
Copyright 2010 by JMT